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V-Lab

Cboe 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Basis Point Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

85.36%

decreased by 9.93%

1 Week

86.50%

decreased by 8.79%

1 Month

88.50%

decreased by 6.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Cboe 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Basis Point Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.1280
9.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1444
10.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8604
63.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8034
3.86***

Persistence:

0.860

Half-life:

5 days