V-Lab
Cboe 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Basis Point Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
91.93%
1 Week
92.57%
1 Month
93.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2305 | 21.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7327 | 48.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2238 | -22.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.11 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2049 | 0.11 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4813 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
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