Skip to main content
V-Lab

Cboe 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Basis Point Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

91.93%

decreased by 5.38%

1 Week

92.57%

decreased by 4.74%

1 Month

93.69%

decreased by 3.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Cboe 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Basis Point Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2305
21.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7327
48.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2238
-22.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.11
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2049
0.11
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4813
0.10

Persistence:

0.851

Half-life:

4 days