V-Lab
Cboe 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Basis Point Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Last recorded values (Friday, July 31st, 2026):
1 Day
149.94%
1 Week
139.15%
1 Month
116.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2283 | 21.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7341 | 48.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2219 | -22.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.11 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2036 | 0.11 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4808 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.852
Half-life:
4 days
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