Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

107.56%

decreased by 2.40%

1 Week

104.61%

decreased by 5.35%

1 Month

102.04%

decreased by 7.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 220% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1957
21.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7079
48.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1345
-5.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

4.9701
0.36
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2423
0.35
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5944
0.51

Persistence:

0.836

Half-life:

4 days