V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
94.09%
1 Week
96.30%
1 Month
99.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 212% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1932 | 21.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7098 | 48.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1314 | -5.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.8761 | 0.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2383 | 0.35 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6015 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.837
Half-life:
4 days
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