CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
69.79%
decreased by 2.94%
1 Week
71.77%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
77.75%
increased by 5.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2008 to Oct 29, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2428 | 2.53** |
| αARCH | 0.1411 | 6.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8243 | 38.48*** |
0.965
Persistence20d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2428 | 2.53** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1411 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8243 | 38.48*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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