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CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

69.79%

decreased by 2.94%

1 Week

71.77%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Month

77.75%

increased by 5.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 15, 2008 to Oct 29, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2428
2.53**
αARCH0.1411
6.60***
βGARCH0.8243
38.48***

0.965

Persistence

20d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2428
2.53**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1411
6.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8243
38.48***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

20 days