V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
137.10%
decreased by 9.79%
1 Week
134.71%
decreased by 12.18%
1 Month
126.77%
decreased by 20.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2356 | 9.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1421 | 26.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8234 | 150.57*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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