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CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

80.84%

decreased by 3.54%

1 Week

81.43%

decreased by 2.95%

1 Month

83.27%

decreased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifev = 4.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run31.2398
1.67*
αscore0.0930
5.94***
βpersistence0.9626
46.22***
νDF4.3269
1.96**

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

31.2398
1.67*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0930
5.94***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9626
46.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3269
1.96**

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days