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CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

97.56%

decreased by 8.66%

1 Week

96.99%

decreased by 9.23%

1 Month

95.16%

decreased by 11.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 4.24 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst31.3429
1.58
αARCH0.0891
5.94***
βGARCH0.9645
46.20***
νDF4.2358
2.00**

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.3429
1.58
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0891
5.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9645
46.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2358
2.00**

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days