CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
80.84%
decreased by 3.54%
1 Week
81.43%
decreased by 2.95%
1 Month
83.27%
decreased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifev = 4.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 31.2398 | 1.67* |
| αscore | 0.0930 | 5.94*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9626 | 46.22*** |
| νDF | 4.3269 | 1.96** |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 31.2398 | 1.67* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0930 | 5.94*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9626 | 46.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3269 | 1.96** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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