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V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

123.05%

decreased by 6.92%

1 Week

120.98%

decreased by 8.99%

1 Month

114.17%

decreased by 15.80%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.2720
6.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0899
23.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9640
184.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2369
8.02***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days