V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
97.56%
decreased by 8.66%
1 Week
96.99%
decreased by 9.23%
1 Month
95.16%
decreased by 11.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 4.24 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 31.3429 | 1.58 |
| αARCH | 0.0891 | 5.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9645 | 46.20*** |
| νDF | 4.2358 | 2.00** |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.3429 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0891 | 5.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9645 | 46.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2358 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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