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CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

122.08%

decreased by 12.15%

1 Week

120.00%

decreased by 14.23%

1 Month

113.18%

decreased by 21.05%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

30.9331
6.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0903
23.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9632
184.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2686
7.93***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

19 days