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CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

92.50%

decreased by 7.66%

1 Week

92.24%

decreased by 7.92%

1 Month

91.40%

decreased by 8.76%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.2022
6.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0897
23.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9640
184.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2467
7.99***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days