V-Lab
India NSE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
74.86%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
76.16%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
80.18%
increased by 3.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 3.94 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 33.8077 | 1.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0677 | 5.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9651 | 47.92*** |
| νDF | 3.9406 | 1.75* |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.8077 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 5.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9651 | 47.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9406 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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