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India NSE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

112.04%

increased by 16.89%

1 Week

110.82%

increased by 15.67%

1 Month

106.86%

increased by 11.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of India NSE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 3.94 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst34.0121
1.52
αARCH0.0682
5.36***
βGARCH0.9648
48.21***
νDF3.9441
1.76*

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

34.0121
1.52
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0682
5.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9648
48.21***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9441
1.76*

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days