V-Lab
India NSE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
112.04%
increased by 16.89%
1 Week
110.82%
increased by 15.67%
1 Month
106.86%
increased by 11.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 3.94 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 34.0121 | 1.52 |
| αARCH | 0.0682 | 5.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9648 | 48.21*** |
| νDF | 3.9441 | 1.76* |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 34.0121 | 1.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0682 | 5.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9648 | 48.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9441 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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