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V-Lab

India NSE Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

65.96%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Week

67.89%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

74.40%

increased by 6.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of India NSE Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2008 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.31 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2834
6.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0643
13.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9171
198.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.6906
-8.62***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3107
21.79***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days