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FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

99.34%

decreased by 5.37%

1 Week

101.00%

decreased by 3.71%

1 Month

104.91%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.27 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifeδ = 1.27 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.47
αARCH0.0858
2.46**
βGARCH0.8370
23.29***
γleverage-0.7090
-1.72*
δpower1.2685
4.79***

0.914

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.47
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0858
2.46**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8370
23.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.7090
-1.72*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2685
4.79***

Persistence:

0.914

Half-life:

8 days