V-Lab
FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
99.34%
1 Week
101.00%
1 Month
104.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.27 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0858 | 2.46** |
| βGARCH | 0.8370 | 23.29*** |
| γleverage | -0.7090 | -1.72* |
| δpower | 1.2685 | 4.79*** |
0.914
Persistence8d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8370 | 23.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.7090 | -1.72* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2685 | 4.79*** |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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