V-Lab
FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
122.09%
increased by 28.81%
1 Week
116.96%
increased by 23.68%
1 Month
109.11%
increased by 15.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Apr 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8898 | 14.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1474 | 6.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6713 | 15.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0121 | 2.92*** |
| γ2 | -0.0225 | -3.59*** |
| γ3 | 0.0140 | 4.25*** |
Persistence:
0.819
Half-life:
3 days
Other FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices