V-Lab
FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
92.10%
decreased by 4.40%
1 Week
95.20%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Month
99.48%
increased by 2.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8913 | 14.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1505 | 6.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6660 | 15.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0118 | 2.92*** |
| γ2 | -0.0223 | -3.65*** |
| γ3 | 0.0144 | 4.48*** |
0.816
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8913 | 14.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1505 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6660 | 15.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0118 | 2.92*** |
| γ2 | -0.0223 | -3.65*** |
| γ3 | 0.0144 | 4.48*** |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
Other FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices