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HSI Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

77.43%

increased by 2.42%

1 Week

79.17%

increased by 4.16%

1 Month

83.68%

increased by 8.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of HSI Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0107
6.28***
αARCH0.1001
5.43***
βGARCH0.8376
29.07***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.07

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0107
6.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1001
5.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8376
29.07***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.07

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days