V-Lab
HSI Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
78.87%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
84.17%
increased by 4.26%
1 Month
95.13%
increased by 15.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7142 | 6.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.0999 | 5.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8073 | 23.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.6295 | -3.09*** |
| γ2 | 1.0621 | 3.17*** |
| γ3 | -0.7501 | -2.70*** |
| γ4 | 0.5417 | 2.08** |
| γ5 | -0.3623 | -1.70* |
| γ6 | 0.0918 | 0.49 |
| γ7 | 0.2405 | 1.65* |
| γ8 | -0.3016 | -2.55** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7142 | 6.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0999 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8073 | 23.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.6295 | -3.09*** |
| γ2 | 1.0621 | 3.17*** |
| γ3 | -0.7501 | -2.70*** |
| γ4 | 0.5417 | 2.08** |
| γ5 | -0.3623 | -1.70* |
| γ6 | 0.0918 | 0.49 |
| γ7 | 0.2405 | 1.65* |
| γ8 | -0.3016 | -2.55** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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