V-Lab
HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
59.26%
decreased by 3.32%
1 Week
62.97%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
72.57%
increased by 9.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Nov 19, 2021Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.9688 | 6.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0981 | 14.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9474 | 112.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7361 | 4.54*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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