V-Lab
HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
56.63%
decreased by 2.86%
1 Week
60.68%
increased by 1.19%
1 Month
70.55%
increased by 11.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.64 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 29.2374 | 1.80* |
| αARCH | 0.1092 | 4.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9394 | 28.74*** |
| νDF | 4.6358 | 1.40 |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 29.2374 | 1.80* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1092 | 4.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9394 | 28.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6358 | 1.40 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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