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HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

65.40%

increased by 3.04%

1 Week

68.22%

increased by 5.86%

1 Month

75.73%

increased by 13.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2010 to Nov 19, 2021

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.9688
6.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0981
14.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9474
112.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7361
4.54***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days