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HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

59.99%

decreased by 3.88%

1 Week

63.52%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

72.27%

increased by 8.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2010 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.63 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst29.3367
1.80*
αARCH0.1095
4.20***
βGARCH0.9389
28.37***
νDF4.6271
1.39

0.939

Persistence

11d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.3367
1.80*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1095
4.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9389
28.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6271
1.39

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days