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HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

75.31%

increased by 17.60%

1 Week

76.63%

increased by 18.92%

1 Month

80.11%

increased by 22.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2010 to Nov 5, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run29.3874
1.81*
αscore0.1112
4.20***
βpersistence0.9384
28.50***
νDF4.6594
1.39

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

29.3874
1.81*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1112
4.20***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9384
28.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6594
1.39

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days