HSI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
75.31%
increased by 17.60%
1 Week
76.63%
increased by 18.92%
1 Month
80.11%
increased by 22.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Nov 5, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 29.3874 | 1.81* |
| αscore | 0.1112 | 4.20*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9384 | 28.50*** |
| νDF | 4.6594 | 1.39 |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 29.3874 | 1.81* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1112 | 4.20*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9384 | 28.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6594 | 1.39 |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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