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V-Lab

HSI Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

68.07%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

70.23%

increased by 2.66%

1 Month

76.75%

increased by 9.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of HSI Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 16, 2010 to Nov 19, 2021

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3578
7.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0649
6.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8971
120.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.9669
-4.86***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1921
22.10***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days