Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE Gold Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

59.86%

decreased by 2.30%

1 Week

66.08%

increased by 3.92%

1 Month

77.80%

increased by 15.64%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 9, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 1.24 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifeδ = 1.24 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.96*
αARCH0.1508
4.15***
βGARCH0.7525
14.70***
γleverage-0.3590
-1.86*
δpower1.2351
5.19***

0.878

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.96*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1508
4.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7525
14.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3590
-1.86*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2351
5.19***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days