CBOE Gold Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
59.86%
1 Week
66.08%
1 Month
77.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 1.24 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.96* |
| αARCH | 0.1508 | 4.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7525 | 14.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.3590 | -1.86* |
| δpower | 1.2351 | 5.19*** |
0.878
Persistence5d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.96* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1508 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7525 | 14.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3590 | -1.86* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2351 | 5.19*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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