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V-Lab

CBOE Gold Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

108.14%

increased by 38.48%

1 Week

102.82%

increased by 33.16%

1 Month

91.88%

increased by 22.22%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3422
8.36***
αARCH0.1481
6.30***
βGARCH0.7258
18.39***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0036
1.61

0.874

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3422
8.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1481
6.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7258
18.39***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0036
1.61

Persistence:

0.874

Half-life:

5 days