V-Lab
CBOE Gold Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
64.01%
decreased by 3.26%
1 Week
68.02%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
75.04%
increased by 7.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3381 | 8.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1491 | 6.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7248 | 18.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0034 | 1.49 |
0.874
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3381 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1491 | 6.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7248 | 18.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0034 | 1.49 |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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