CBOE Gold Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
108.14%
increased by 38.48%
1 Week
102.82%
increased by 33.16%
1 Month
91.88%
increased by 22.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3422 | 8.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.1481 | 6.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7258 | 18.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0036 | 1.61 |
0.874
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3422 | 8.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1481 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7258 | 18.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0036 | 1.61 |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
Other CBOE Gold Volatility Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices