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V-Lab

EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

82.74%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Week

87.26%

increased by 2.92%

1 Month

93.19%

increased by 8.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7762
13.00***
αARCH0.1299
7.17***
βGARCH0.6805
18.49***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0017
1.11
γ2-0.0064
-2.12**

0.810

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7762
13.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1299
7.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6805
18.49***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0017
1.11
γ2-0.0064
-2.12**

Persistence:

0.810

Half-life:

3 days