EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
82.74%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Week
87.26%
increased by 2.92%
1 Month
93.19%
increased by 8.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7762 | 13.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1299 | 7.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6805 | 18.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0017 | 1.11 |
| γ2 | -0.0064 | -2.12** |
0.810
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7762 | 13.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1299 | 7.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6805 | 18.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0017 | 1.11 |
| γ2 | -0.0064 | -2.12** |
Persistence:
0.810
Half-life:
3 days
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