EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
87.00%
decreased by 5.04%
1 Week
90.20%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Month
94.48%
increased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7780 | 12.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1316 | 7.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6781 | 18.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 1.14 |
| γ2 | -0.0066 | -2.14** |
Persistence:
0.810
Half-life:
3 days
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