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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

45.20%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

48.39%

increased by 3.17%

1 Month

53.62%

increased by 8.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1256
4.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1809
4.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6811
15.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.1884
1.59
γ2-0.1264
-0.68
γ3-0.2748
-1.48
γ40.5336
2.83***
γ5-0.5024
-2.92***
γ60.3000
1.77*
γ7-0.4144
-2.58***
γ80.8995
4.41***

Persistence:

0.862

Half-life:

5 days