V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
45.20%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
48.39%
increased by 3.17%
1 Month
53.62%
increased by 8.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1256 | 4.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1809 | 4.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6811 | 15.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1884 | 1.59 |
| γ2 | -0.1264 | -0.68 |
| γ3 | -0.2748 | -1.48 |
| γ4 | 0.5336 | 2.83*** |
| γ5 | -0.5024 | -2.92*** |
| γ6 | 0.3000 | 1.77* |
| γ7 | -0.4144 | -2.58*** |
| γ8 | 0.8995 | 4.41*** |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
Other ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices