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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

29.83%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Week

31.13%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Month

33.33%

increased by 1.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 276% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 276% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.2348
5.86***
βGARCH0.7293
20.18***
γleverage-0.1723
-4.24***
λ₁tau intercept1.5741
2.16**
λ₂forecast adj.0.6662
2.42**
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.878

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2348
5.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7293
20.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1723
-4.24***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5741
2.16**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6662
2.42**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days