V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
129.04%
1 Week
129.57%
1 Month
129.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 199% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.2493 | 6.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6884 | 13.28*** |
| γleverage | -0.1660 | -3.15*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.2425 | 1.40 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2301 | 1.66* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7132 | 4.09*** |
0.855
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2493 | 6.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6884 | 13.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1660 | -3.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.2425 | 1.40 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2301 | 1.66* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7132 | 4.09*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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