CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
163.64%
1 Week
160.25%
1 Month
154.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 202% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2500 | 22.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6884 | 43.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1673 | -12.01*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.1547 | 0.99 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2245 | 1.07 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7207 | 2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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