V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
106.66%
1 Week
115.32%
1 Month
129.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 201% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2493 | 22.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6874 | 43.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1664 | -11.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.2814 | 0.95 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2304 | 1.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7131 | 2.46** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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