CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
150.69%
1 Week
148.40%
1 Month
145.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 204% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.2531 | 6.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6855 | 13.23*** |
| γleverage | -0.1700 | -3.20*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.1187 | 1.40 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2206 | 1.66* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7248 | 4.34*** |
0.854
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2531 | 6.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6855 | 13.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1700 | -3.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.1187 | 1.40 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2206 | 1.66* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7248 | 4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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