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V-Lab

CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

157.37%

increased by 28.55%

1 Week

155.55%

increased by 26.73%

1 Month

150.49%

increased by 21.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 199% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2499
22.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6869
43.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1662
-11.92***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.2063
0.97
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2272
1.06
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7178
2.58***

Persistence:

0.854

Half-life:

4 days