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CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

129.04%

decreased by 10.20%

1 Week

129.57%

decreased by 9.67%

1 Month

129.81%

decreased by 9.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 199% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 199% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.2493
6.11***
βGARCH0.6884
13.28***
γleverage-0.1660
-3.15***
λ₁tau intercept5.2425
1.40
λ₂forecast adj.0.2301
1.66*
λ₃tau persistence0.7132
4.09***

0.855

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2493
6.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6884
13.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1660
-3.15***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.2425
1.40
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2301
1.66*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7132
4.09***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days