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V-Lab

CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

106.66%

decreased by 5.81%

1 Week

115.32%

increased by 2.85%

1 Month

129.38%

increased by 16.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 201% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2493
22.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6874
43.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1664
-11.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.2814
0.95
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2304
1.03
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7131
2.46**

Persistence:

0.854

Half-life:

4 days