V-Lab
JSE Securities South African Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
133.66%
1 Week
124.75%
1 Month
106.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2007 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 59% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1480 | 15.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7450 | 44.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0546 | -4.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0469 | 1.71* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0085 | 2.19** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9883 | 192.64*** |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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