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V-Lab

JSE Securities South African Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

133.66%

increased by 25.98%

1 Week

124.75%

increased by 17.07%

1 Month

106.94%

decreased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of JSE Securities South African Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 1, 2007 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 59% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1480
15.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7450
44.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0546
-4.06***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0469
1.71*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0085
2.19**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9883
192.64***

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days