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CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

77.32%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Week

82.61%

increased by 4.22%

1 Month

89.65%

increased by 11.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.2095
5.49***
βGARCH0.7233
13.82***
γleverage-0.2095
-5.42***
λ₁tau intercept0.6551
0.60
λ₂forecast adj.0.0134
0.90
λ₃tau persistence0.9721
26.04***

0.828

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2095
5.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7233
13.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2095
-5.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6551
0.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0134
0.90
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9721
26.04***

Persistence:

0.828

Half-life:

4 days