CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
82.35%
1 Week
88.06%
1 Month
95.87%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2093 | 24.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7206 | 44.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2093 | -24.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7116 | 0.38 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0113 | 0.50 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9731 | 15.81*** |
Persistence:
0.825
Half-life:
4 days
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