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CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

78.01%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Week

82.09%

increased by 1.97%

1 Month

87.80%

increased by 7.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.2083
5.51***
βGARCH0.7245
13.93***
γleverage-0.2083
-5.43***
λ₁tau intercept0.6408
0.62
λ₂forecast adj.0.0144
0.95
λ₃tau persistence0.9714
26.59***

0.829

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2083
5.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7245
13.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2083
-5.43***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6408
0.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0144
0.95
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9714
26.59***

Persistence:

0.829

Half-life:

4 days