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V-Lab

CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

82.35%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Week

88.06%

increased by 4.77%

1 Month

95.87%

increased by 12.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2093
24.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7206
44.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2093
-24.34***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7116
0.38
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0113
0.50
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9731
15.81***

Persistence:

0.825

Half-life:

4 days