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V-Lab

CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

83.38%

decreased by 1.55%

1 Week

87.69%

increased by 2.76%

1 Month

93.71%

increased by 8.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2101
24.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7209
44.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2101
-24.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6810
0.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0121
0.54
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9729
16.94***

Persistence:

0.826

Half-life:

4 days