CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
93.53%
1 Week
92.14%
1 Month
90.37%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.2090 | 5.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7237 | 13.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.2090 | -5.45*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6240 | 0.65 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0160 | 1.01 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9701 | 27.13*** |
0.828
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2090 | 5.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7237 | 13.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2090 | -5.45*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6240 | 0.65 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0160 | 1.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9701 | 27.13*** |
Persistence:
0.828
Half-life:
4 days
Other CBOE Apple Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices