V-Lab
CBOE Apple Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
83.38%
1 Week
87.69%
1 Month
93.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2101 | 24.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7209 | 44.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2101 | -24.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6810 | 0.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0121 | 0.54 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9729 | 16.94*** |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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