V-Lab
CBOE Apple Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
79.62%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Week
85.28%
increased by 4.60%
1 Month
90.18%
increased by 9.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1696 | 7.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1212 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5876 | 6.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0268 | 1.74* |
| γ2 | -0.0461 | -2.06** |
| γ3 | 0.0292 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
0.709
Half-life:
2 days
Other CBOE Apple Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices