V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
72.62%
decreased by 5.10%
1 Week
72.12%
decreased by 5.60%
1 Month
71.32%
decreased by 6.40%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7520 | 7.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1105 | 7.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7233 | 19.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.0305 | 0.55 |
| γ3 | -0.0729 | -2.04** |
| γ4 | 0.0519 | 1.43 |
| γ5 | -0.0034 | -0.10 |
| γ6 | -0.0074 | -0.21 |
| γ7 | -0.0322 | -0.87 |
| γ8 | 0.1134 | 3.10*** |
| γ9 | -0.1562 | -3.96*** |
| γ10 | 0.0997 | 3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.834
Half-life:
4 days
Other ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices