V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
110.72%
increased by 32.56%
1 Week
101.29%
increased by 23.13%
1 Month
84.45%
increased by 6.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 1, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7544 | 7.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1109 | 7.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7240 | 20.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0301 | 0.54 |
| γ3 | -0.0734 | -2.05** |
| γ4 | 0.0527 | 1.45 |
| γ5 | -0.0043 | -0.12 |
| γ6 | -0.0067 | -0.19 |
| γ7 | -0.0323 | -0.87 |
| γ8 | 0.1128 | 3.07*** |
| γ9 | -0.1547 | -3.90*** |
| γ10 | 0.0979 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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