V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
62.61%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
64.72%
increased by 1.54%
1 Month
67.88%
increased by 4.70%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7523 | 7.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 7.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7243 | 20.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 0.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0284 | 0.51 |
| γ3 | -0.0717 | -2.02** |
| γ4 | 0.0519 | 1.45 |
| γ5 | -0.0040 | -0.11 |
| γ6 | -0.0075 | -0.22 |
| γ7 | -0.0303 | -0.83 |
| γ8 | 0.1105 | 3.05*** |
| γ9 | -0.1547 | -3.99*** |
| γ10 | 0.0999 | 3.16*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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