Skip to main content
V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

73.53%

increased by 3.76%

1 Week

72.73%

increased by 2.96%

1 Month

71.47%

increased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7509
7.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1109
7.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7219
19.72***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0007
0.02
γ20.0303
0.54
γ3-0.0727
-2.03**
γ40.0518
1.42
γ5-0.0034
-0.09
γ6-0.0070
-0.20
γ7-0.0334
-0.90
γ80.1152
3.14***
γ9-0.1578
-3.98***
γ100.1006
3.12***

Persistence:

0.833

Half-life:

4 days