ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
73.53%
increased by 3.76%
1 Week
72.73%
increased by 2.96%
1 Month
71.47%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7509 | 7.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1109 | 7.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7219 | 19.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0007 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | 0.0303 | 0.54 |
| γ3 | -0.0727 | -2.03** |
| γ4 | 0.0518 | 1.42 |
| γ5 | -0.0034 | -0.09 |
| γ6 | -0.0070 | -0.20 |
| γ7 | -0.0334 | -0.90 |
| γ8 | 0.1152 | 3.14*** |
| γ9 | -0.1578 | -3.98*** |
| γ10 | 0.1006 | 3.12*** |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
Other ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices