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V-Lab

CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

123.26%

increased by 3.80%

1 Week

132.12%

increased by 12.66%

1 Month

146.76%

increased by 27.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9943
9.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1278
6.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7361
19.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0318
4.33***
γ2-0.0474
-4.13***
γ30.0272
3.05***
γ4-0.0188
-2.87***

Persistence:

0.864

Half-life:

5 days