V-Lab
CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
126.32%
increased by 4.43%
1 Week
133.83%
increased by 11.94%
1 Month
146.48%
increased by 24.59%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9932 | 9.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.1277 | 6.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7374 | 19.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0313 | 4.30*** |
| γ2 | -0.0467 | -4.11*** |
| γ3 | 0.0265 | 3.01*** |
| γ4 | -0.0181 | -2.82*** |
0.865
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9932 | 9.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1277 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7374 | 19.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0313 | 4.30*** |
| γ2 | -0.0467 | -4.11*** |
| γ3 | 0.0265 | 3.01*** |
| γ4 | -0.0181 | -2.82*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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