V-Lab
CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
140.13%
increased by 10.99%
1 Week
144.50%
increased by 15.36%
1 Month
152.08%
increased by 22.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9957 | 9.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1282 | 6.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7356 | 19.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0321 | 4.33*** |
| γ2 | -0.0479 | -4.12*** |
| γ3 | 0.0275 | 3.06*** |
| γ4 | -0.0191 | -2.89*** |
Persistence:
0.864
Half-life:
5 days
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