CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
122.60%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Week
130.89%
increased by 6.82%
1 Month
144.82%
increased by 20.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9931 | 8.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.1278 | 6.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7387 | 19.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0310 | 4.27*** |
| γ2 | -0.0462 | -4.08*** |
| γ3 | 0.0260 | 2.97*** |
| γ4 | -0.0176 | -2.76*** |
0.866
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9931 | 8.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1278 | 6.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7387 | 19.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0310 | 4.27*** |
| γ2 | -0.0462 | -4.08*** |
| γ3 | 0.0260 | 2.97*** |
| γ4 | -0.0176 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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