V-Lab
CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
96.62%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
96.51%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Month
96.31%
decreased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9126 | 4.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.1325 | 7.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7166 | 20.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0146 | 0.20 |
| γ2 | -0.0075 | -0.07 |
| γ3 | 0.0582 | 0.86 |
| γ4 | -0.1473 | -1.77* |
| γ5 | 0.1158 | 1.30 |
| γ6 | -0.0454 | -0.62 |
| γ7 | 0.0175 | 0.25 |
| γ8 | -0.0133 | -0.21 |
| γ9 | 0.0911 | 1.23 |
| γ10 | -0.3472 | -2.48** |
0.849
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9126 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1325 | 7.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7166 | 20.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0146 | 0.20 |
| γ2 | -0.0075 | -0.07 |
| γ3 | 0.0582 | 0.86 |
| γ4 | -0.1473 | -1.77* |
| γ5 | 0.1158 | 1.30 |
| γ6 | -0.0454 | -0.62 |
| γ7 | 0.0175 | 0.25 |
| γ8 | -0.0133 | -0.21 |
| γ9 | 0.0911 | 1.23 |
| γ10 | -0.3472 | -2.48** |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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