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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

109.54%

decreased by 5.42%

1 Week

110.61%

decreased by 4.35%

1 Month

112.39%

decreased by 2.57%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8910
5.26***
αARCH0.1324
7.59***
βGARCH0.7189
20.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0127
-0.27
γ20.0678
0.98
γ3-0.0859
-1.67*
γ40.0255
0.57
γ50.0164
0.46
γ6-0.0292
-0.72
γ70.0815
1.59
γ8-0.2041
-2.46**

0.851

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8910
5.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1324
7.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7189
20.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0127
-0.27
γ20.0678
0.98
γ3-0.0859
-1.67*
γ40.0255
0.57
γ50.0164
0.46
γ6-0.0292
-0.72
γ70.0815
1.59
γ8-0.2041
-2.46**

Persistence:

0.851

Half-life:

4 days