V-Lab
CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
109.54%
decreased by 5.42%
1 Week
110.61%
decreased by 4.35%
1 Month
112.39%
decreased by 2.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8910 | 5.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.1324 | 7.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7189 | 20.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0127 | -0.27 |
| γ2 | 0.0678 | 0.98 |
| γ3 | -0.0859 | -1.67* |
| γ4 | 0.0255 | 0.57 |
| γ5 | 0.0164 | 0.46 |
| γ6 | -0.0292 | -0.72 |
| γ7 | 0.0815 | 1.59 |
| γ8 | -0.2041 | -2.46** |
0.851
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8910 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7189 | 20.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0127 | -0.27 |
| γ2 | 0.0678 | 0.98 |
| γ3 | -0.0859 | -1.67* |
| γ4 | 0.0255 | 0.57 |
| γ5 | 0.0164 | 0.46 |
| γ6 | -0.0292 | -0.72 |
| γ7 | 0.0815 | 1.59 |
| γ8 | -0.2041 | -2.46** |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
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