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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

96.62%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Week

96.51%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Month

96.31%

decreased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9126
4.85***
αARCH0.1325
7.60***
βGARCH0.7166
20.04***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0146
0.20
γ2-0.0075
-0.07
γ30.0582
0.86
γ4-0.1473
-1.77*
γ50.1158
1.30
γ6-0.0454
-0.62
γ70.0175
0.25
γ8-0.0133
-0.21
γ90.0911
1.23
γ10-0.3472
-2.48**

0.849

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9126
4.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1325
7.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7166
20.04***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0146
0.20
γ2-0.0075
-0.07
γ30.0582
0.86
γ4-0.1473
-1.77*
γ50.1158
1.30
γ6-0.0454
-0.62
γ70.0175
0.25
γ8-0.0133
-0.21
γ90.0911
1.23
γ10-0.3472
-2.48**

Persistence:

0.849

Half-life:

4 days