V-Lab
CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
105.12%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
109.98%
increased by 4.30%
1 Month
118.56%
increased by 12.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7352 | 10.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.1119 | 7.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7596 | 23.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0401 | 3.17*** |
| γ2 | -0.0701 | -3.63*** |
| γ3 | 0.0515 | 3.23*** |
| γ4 | -0.0603 | -3.54*** |
| γ5 | 0.1050 | 4.24*** |
0.872
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7352 | 10.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1119 | 7.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7596 | 23.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0401 | 3.17*** |
| γ2 | -0.0701 | -3.63*** |
| γ3 | 0.0515 | 3.23*** |
| γ4 | -0.0603 | -3.54*** |
| γ5 | 0.1050 | 4.24*** |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
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