CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
139.00%
increased by 48.60%
1 Week
131.01%
increased by 40.61%
1 Month
114.15%
increased by 23.75%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 12:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.6796 | 3.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.2831 | 7.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5928 | 21.30*** |
0.876
Persistence5d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.6796 | 3.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2831 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5928 | 21.30*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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