V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
217.22%
decreased by 12.90%
1 Week
218.30%
decreased by 11.82%
1 Month
222.04%
decreased by 8.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1372 | 22.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8412 | 161.43*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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