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CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

197.45%

increased by 7.98%

1 Week

199.49%

increased by 10.02%

1 Month

206.42%

increased by 16.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2013 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
1.46
αARCH0.1410
5.68***
βGARCH0.8373
40.38***

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1410
5.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8373
40.38***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days