CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
225.62%
increased by 26.09%
1 Week
221.77%
increased by 22.24%
1 Month
213.96%
increased by 14.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.85 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 7.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0791 | 17.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8312 | 77.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -44.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8533 | 16.78*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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