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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

427.74%

decreased by 90.90%

1 Week

361.68%

decreased by 156.96%

1 Month

293.14%

decreased by 225.50%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 12:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9163
9.84***
αARCH0.1305
3.98***
βGARCH0.5606
6.85***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0187
1.38
γ2-0.0476
-2.26**
γ30.0776
3.80***

0.691

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9163
9.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1305
3.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5606
6.85***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0187
1.38
γ2-0.0476
-2.26**
γ30.0776
3.80***

Persistence:

0.691

Half-life:

2 days