V-Lab
DAX Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
99.94%
decreased by 5.43%
1 Week
100.73%
decreased by 4.64%
1 Month
102.37%
decreased by 3.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7147 | 13.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1157 | 8.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7780 | 30.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.72* |
0.894
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7147 | 13.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1157 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7780 | 30.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.72* |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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