V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.49%
decreased by 1.95%
1 Week
41.38%
increased by 1.94%
1 Month
47.21%
increased by 7.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7018 | 4.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2027 | 6.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6471 | 14.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5652 | -4.03*** |
| γ2 | 0.8417 | 3.68*** |
| γ3 | -0.4240 | -2.25** |
| γ4 | 0.2474 | 1.28 |
| γ5 | -0.1707 | -0.81 |
| γ6 | 0.1079 | 0.48 |
| γ7 | 0.0464 | 0.20 |
| γ8 | -0.3763 | -1.62 |
| γ9 | 0.7271 | 3.07*** |
| γ10 | -1.0591 | -2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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