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V-Lab
V-Lab

FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

89.88%

decreased by 11.48%

1 Week

87.71%

decreased by 13.65%

1 Month

84.45%

decreased by 16.91%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7944
14.30***
αARCH0.1527
6.13***
βGARCH0.6665
15.02***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0014
0.70
γ2-0.0092
-2.29**

0.819

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7944
14.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1527
6.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6665
15.02***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0014
0.70
γ2-0.0092
-2.29**

Persistence:

0.819

Half-life:

3 days