V-Lab
FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
89.88%
decreased by 11.48%
1 Week
87.71%
decreased by 13.65%
1 Month
84.45%
decreased by 16.91%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7944 | 14.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1527 | 6.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6665 | 15.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0014 | 0.70 |
| γ2 | -0.0092 | -2.29** |
0.819
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7944 | 14.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1527 | 6.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6665 | 15.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0014 | 0.70 |
| γ2 | -0.0092 | -2.29** |
Persistence:
0.819
Half-life:
3 days
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