V-Lab
FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
115.39%
increased by 1.32%
1 Week
126.74%
increased by 12.67%
1 Month
139.43%
increased by 25.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Apr 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7655 | 7.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1554 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6263 | 12.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0331 | -0.54 |
| γ2 | 0.0271 | 0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0687 | 1.00 |
| γ4 | -0.1475 | -2.32** |
| γ5 | 0.1675 | 2.76*** |
| γ6 | -0.1839 | -3.03*** |
| γ7 | 0.2025 | 3.45*** |
| γ8 | -0.2542 | -3.69*** |
| γ9 | 0.4447 | 4.77*** |
Persistence:
0.782
Half-life:
3 days
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