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V-Lab

FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

115.39%

increased by 1.32%

1 Week

126.74%

increased by 12.67%

1 Month

139.43%

increased by 25.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Apr 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7655
7.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1554
5.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6263
12.64***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0331
-0.54
γ20.0271
0.29
γ30.0687
1.00
γ4-0.1475
-2.32**
γ50.1675
2.76***
γ6-0.1839
-3.03***
γ70.2025
3.45***
γ8-0.2542
-3.69***
γ90.4447
4.77***

Persistence:

0.782

Half-life:

3 days