FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
101.00%
increased by 7.35%
1 Week
102.00%
increased by 8.35%
1 Month
104.00%
increased by 10.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.1730 | 3.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7900 | 27.04*** |
| γleverage | -0.1507 | -2.51** |
0.888
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1730 | 3.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7900 | 27.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1507 | -2.51** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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