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FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

103.14%

increased by 6.12%

1 Week

103.93%

increased by 6.91%

1 Month

105.97%

increased by 8.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 5.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run47.3174
3.64***
αscore0.1021
6.14***
βpersistence0.9316
45.11***
νDF5.4133
1.59

0.932

Persistence

10d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

47.3174
3.64***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1021
6.14***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9316
45.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4133
1.59

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days