FTSE 100 Implied Volatility Index 30 Days GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
103.14%
increased by 6.12%
1 Week
103.93%
increased by 6.91%
1 Month
105.97%
increased by 8.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 5.41 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 47.3174 | 3.64*** |
| αscore | 0.1021 | 6.14*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9316 | 45.11*** |
| νDF | 5.4133 | 1.59 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 47.3174 | 3.64*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1021 | 6.14*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9316 | 45.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4133 | 1.59 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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