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CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

84.32%

decreased by 5.25%

1 Week

89.67%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

100.81%

increased by 11.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

50.2079
5.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1079
12.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9079
49.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2966
7.42***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days