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CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

95.07%

increased by 11.60%

1 Week

98.11%

increased by 14.64%

1 Month

104.78%

increased by 21.31%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 3.30 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst49.9913
1.37
αARCH0.1079
3.18***
βGARCH0.9097
12.51***
νDF3.3007
1.87*

0.910

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

49.9913
1.37
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1079
3.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9097
12.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3007
1.87*

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days