V-Lab
CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
83.44%
decreased by 5.77%
1 Week
88.83%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
100.17%
increased by 10.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 3.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 50.0527 | 1.36 |
| αARCH | 0.1080 | 3.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9101 | 12.50*** |
| νDF | 3.2967 | 1.88* |
0.910
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 50.0527 | 1.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1080 | 3.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9101 | 12.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2967 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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