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CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

81.16%

decreased by 6.60%

1 Week

87.26%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

99.75%

increased by 11.99%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

50.3216
5.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1080
12.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9076
48.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2959
7.41***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days