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CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

83.44%

decreased by 5.77%

1 Week

88.83%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

100.17%

increased by 10.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 3.30 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst50.0527
1.36
αARCH0.1080
3.19***
βGARCH0.9101
12.50***
νDF3.2967
1.88*

0.910

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

50.0527
1.36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1080
3.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9101
12.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2967
1.88*

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days