V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
103.60%
decreased by 6.86%
1 Week
105.39%
decreased by 5.07%
1 Month
108.76%
decreased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 49.4168 | 12.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1115 | 12.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8773 | 89.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9736 | 4.15*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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