CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
98.58%
decreased by 7.13%
1 Week
101.58%
decreased by 4.13%
1 Month
107.12%
increased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 49.4842 | 12.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1130 | 12.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8767 | 89.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9750 | 4.20*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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