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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

103.60%

decreased by 6.86%

1 Week

105.39%

decreased by 5.07%

1 Month

108.76%

decreased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

49.4168
12.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1115
12.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8773
89.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9736
4.15***

Persistence:

0.877

Half-life:

5 days