CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
98.32%
decreased by 4.08%
1 Week
101.51%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
107.09%
increased by 4.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.19) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4738 | 27.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 30.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7580 | 108.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.1919 | -12.71*** |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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