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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

98.32%

decreased by 4.08%

1 Week

101.51%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

107.09%

increased by 4.69%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.19) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4738
27.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1083
30.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7580
108.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-3.1919
-12.71***

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days