CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
83.84%
increased by 3.98%
1 Week
84.79%
increased by 4.93%
1 Month
88.25%
increased by 8.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0822 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0574 | 12.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9788 | 237.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1108 | 21.41*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
Other CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Analyses
Other EGARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices