V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
58.00%
increased by 6.49%
1 Week
57.17%
increased by 5.66%
1 Month
54.82%
increased by 3.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 131% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1119 | 18.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1970 | 17.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9509 | 360.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0781 | 7.88*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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