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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

58.00%

increased by 6.49%

1 Week

57.17%

increased by 5.66%

1 Month

54.82%

increased by 3.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 131% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1119
18.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1970
17.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9509
360.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0781
7.88***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days