Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
37.20%
increased by 4.13%
1 Week
37.99%
increased by 4.92%
1 Month
40.02%
increased by 6.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 58% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 58% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1613 | 6.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.3531 | 8.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9187 | 74.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.0793 | 2.41** |
0.919
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1613 | 6.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3531 | 8.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9187 | 74.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0793 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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