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Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

37.20%

increased by 4.13%

1 Week

37.99%

increased by 4.92%

1 Month

40.02%

increased by 6.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 58% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 58% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1613
6.40***
αARCH0.3531
8.15***
βGARCH0.9187
74.69***
γleverage0.0793
2.41**

0.919

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1613
6.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3531
8.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9187
74.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0793
2.41**

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days