V-Lab
Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
45.90%
increased by 17.13%
1 Week
46.15%
increased by 17.38%
1 Month
46.85%
increased by 18.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5122 | 7.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.2282 | 7.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7164 | 27.05*** |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5122 | 7.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2282 | 7.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7164 | 27.05*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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