SMI Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
75.09%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
77.20%
increased by 1.35%
1 Month
81.98%
increased by 6.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6077 | 6.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1277 | 7.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7868 | 32.27*** |
0.915
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6077 | 6.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1277 | 7.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7868 | 32.27*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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