Skip to main content
V-Lab

SMI Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

66.37%

increased by 0.51%

1 Week

70.18%

increased by 4.32%

1 Month

78.44%

increased by 12.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SMI Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6161
6.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1288
7.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7857
32.16***

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days