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V-Lab

SMI Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

75.09%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

77.20%

increased by 1.35%

1 Month

81.98%

increased by 6.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SMI Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.6077
6.31***
αARCH0.1277
7.77***
βGARCH0.7868
32.27***

0.915

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6077
6.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1277
7.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7868
32.27***

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days