V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
124.33%
increased by 22.85%
1 Week
121.55%
increased by 20.07%
1 Month
115.45%
increased by 13.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 6.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1346 | 7.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7593 | 27.19*** |
0.894
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1346 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7593 | 27.19*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
Other CBOE Volatility Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices