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V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

124.33%

increased by 22.85%

1 Week

121.55%

increased by 20.07%

1 Month

115.45%

increased by 13.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
6.44***
αARCH0.1346
7.47***
βGARCH0.7593
27.19***

0.894

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
6.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1346
7.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7593
27.19***

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days