V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
107.36%
increased by 11.78%
1 Week
107.26%
increased by 11.68%
1 Month
107.03%
increased by 11.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 45.2334 | 5.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.1257 | 6.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9050 | 45.91*** |
| νDF | 5.3281 | 2.06** |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 45.2334 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1257 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9050 | 45.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3281 | 2.06** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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