V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
107.33%
increased by 8.55%
1 Week
107.24%
increased by 8.46%
1 Month
107.04%
increased by 8.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 45.2696 | 20.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1258 | 26.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9051 | 182.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3120 | 8.26*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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