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CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

106.67%

decreased by 4.46%

1 Week

106.72%

decreased by 4.41%

1 Month

106.83%

decreased by 4.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

45.3865
20.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1256
26.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9060
183.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3174
8.25***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days