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CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

79.91%

decreased by 6.42%

1 Week

85.15%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Month

95.86%

increased by 9.53%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.34 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst45.2075
5.09***
αARCH0.1255
6.60***
βGARCH0.9051
46.06***
νDF5.3377
2.05**

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

45.2075
5.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1255
6.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9051
46.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3377
2.05**

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days