V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
106.67%
decreased by 4.46%
1 Week
106.72%
decreased by 4.41%
1 Month
106.83%
decreased by 4.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 45.3865 | 20.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1256 | 26.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9060 | 183.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3174 | 8.25*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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