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CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

131.70%

increased by 18.22%

1 Week

127.76%

increased by 14.28%

1 Month

118.44%

increased by 4.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

45.3109
20.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1261
26.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9052
182.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3183
8.25***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days