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CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

96.78%

decreased by 9.63%

1 Week

98.59%

decreased by 7.82%

1 Month

102.47%

decreased by 3.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.42 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run45.2729
5.27***
αscore0.1263
6.59***
βpersistence0.9026
46.12***
νDF5.4162
2.00**

0.903

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

45.2729
5.27***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1263
6.59***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9026
46.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4162
2.00**

Persistence:

0.903

Half-life:

7 days