V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
131.70%
increased by 18.22%
1 Week
127.76%
increased by 14.28%
1 Month
118.44%
increased by 4.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 45.3109 | 20.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1261 | 26.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 182.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3183 | 8.25*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
Other CBOE Volatility Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Volatility Indices