V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
55.79%
increased by 6.21%
1 Week
55.06%
increased by 5.48%
1 Month
52.76%
increased by 3.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.1665 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0923 | 23.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9604 | 152.38*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7603 | 10.59*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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