V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
43.89%
increased by 0.53%
1 Week
44.00%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
44.36%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 3.78 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.1742 | 1.59 |
| αARCH | 0.0925 | 5.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9606 | 38.55*** |
| νDF | 3.7822 | 2.65*** |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.1742 | 1.59 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9606 | 38.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7822 | 2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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