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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

43.89%

increased by 0.53%

1 Week

44.00%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

44.36%

increased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 3.78 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst8.1742
1.59
αARCH0.0925
5.84***
βGARCH0.9606
38.55***
νDF3.7822
2.65***

0.961

Persistence

17d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.1742
1.59
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0925
5.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9606
38.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7822
2.65***

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days