V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
68.23%
increased by 11.74%
1 Week
66.81%
increased by 10.32%
1 Month
62.17%
increased by 5.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifev = 3.76 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.2757 | 1.56 |
| αARCH | 0.0923 | 5.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9612 | 38.32*** |
| νDF | 3.7619 | 2.67*** |
0.961
Persistence18d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.2757 | 1.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0923 | 5.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9612 | 38.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7619 | 2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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