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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

55.79%

increased by 6.21%

1 Week

55.06%

increased by 5.48%

1 Month

52.76%

increased by 3.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.1665
6.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0923
23.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9604
152.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7603
10.59***

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days