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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

68.23%

increased by 11.74%

1 Week

66.81%

increased by 10.32%

1 Month

62.17%

increased by 5.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifev = 3.76 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst8.2757
1.56
αARCH0.0923
5.83***
βGARCH0.9612
38.32***
νDF3.7619
2.67***

0.961

Persistence

18d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.2757
1.56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0923
5.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9612
38.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7619
2.67***

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

18 days