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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

98.74%

decreased by 3.61%

1 Week

96.46%

decreased by 5.89%

1 Month

89.26%

decreased by 13.09%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 4.08 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst18.0030
2.40**
αARCH0.0715
5.61***
βGARCH0.9554
48.35***
νDF4.0819
2.20**

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

18.0030
2.40**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0715
5.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9554
48.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0819
2.20**

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days