V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
76.02%
increased by 6.91%
1 Week
75.29%
increased by 6.18%
1 Month
73.08%
increased by 3.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 4.09 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 17.8898 | 2.42** |
| αARCH | 0.0713 | 5.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9550 | 48.39*** |
| νDF | 4.0874 | 2.18** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.8898 | 2.42** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0713 | 5.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9550 | 48.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0874 | 2.18** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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