V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
93.53%
increased by 7.57%
1 Week
91.55%
increased by 5.59%
1 Month
85.34%
decreased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.9459 | 9.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0718 | 22.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9546 | 191.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0705 | 8.74*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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