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V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

76.02%

increased by 6.91%

1 Week

75.29%

increased by 6.18%

1 Month

73.08%

increased by 3.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 4.09 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst17.8898
2.42**
αARCH0.0713
5.59***
βGARCH0.9550
48.39***
νDF4.0874
2.18**

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

17.8898
2.42**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0713
5.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9550
48.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0874
2.18**

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days