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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

80.76%

decreased by 5.15%

1 Week

79.67%

decreased by 6.24%

1 Month

76.32%

decreased by 9.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

17.9163
9.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0716
22.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9544
190.54***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0682
8.71***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days