V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
98.74%
decreased by 3.61%
1 Week
96.46%
decreased by 5.89%
1 Month
89.26%
decreased by 13.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 4.08 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 18.0030 | 2.40** |
| αARCH | 0.0715 | 5.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9554 | 48.35*** |
| νDF | 4.0819 | 2.20** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 18.0030 | 2.40** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 5.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9554 | 48.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0819 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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