ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
61.89%
decreased by 4.09%
1 Week
62.38%
decreased by 3.60%
1 Month
63.79%
decreased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 4.09 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 17.9421 | 2.43** |
| αscore | 0.0717 | 5.60*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9547 | 48.10*** |
| νDF | 4.0875 | 2.19** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 17.9421 | 2.43** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0717 | 5.60*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9547 | 48.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0875 | 2.19** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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