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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

61.89%

decreased by 4.09%

1 Week

62.38%

decreased by 3.60%

1 Month

63.79%

decreased by 2.19%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 4.09 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run17.9421
2.43**
αscore0.0717
5.60***
βpersistence0.9547
48.10***
νDF4.0875
2.19**

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

17.9421
2.43**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0717
5.60***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9547
48.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0875
2.19**

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days