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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

93.53%

increased by 7.57%

1 Week

91.55%

increased by 5.59%

1 Month

85.34%

decreased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

17.9459
9.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0718
22.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9546
191.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0705
8.74***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days