V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
80.76%
decreased by 5.15%
1 Week
79.67%
decreased by 6.24%
1 Month
76.32%
decreased by 9.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.9163 | 9.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0716 | 22.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9544 | 190.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0682 | 8.71*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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