V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
74.90%
decreased by 3.22%
1 Week
74.05%
decreased by 4.07%
1 Month
71.49%
decreased by 6.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 169% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8147 | 21.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1040 | 24.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8802 | 221.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0653 | -10.15*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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