V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
85.33%
increased by 7.18%
1 Week
83.67%
increased by 5.52%
1 Month
78.59%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 168% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8158 | 21.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1043 | 24.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8800 | 220.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0654 | -10.16*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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