Skip to main content
V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

85.33%

increased by 7.18%

1 Week

83.67%

increased by 5.52%

1 Month

78.59%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 168% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8158
21.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1043
24.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8800
220.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0654
-10.16***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days