V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
67.53%
decreased by 2.78%
1 Week
67.31%
decreased by 3.00%
1 Month
66.65%
decreased by 3.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 168% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8109 | 21.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1035 | 24.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8807 | 222.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0649 | -10.13*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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