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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

74.90%

decreased by 3.22%

1 Week

74.05%

decreased by 4.07%

1 Month

71.49%

decreased by 6.63%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 169% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8147
21.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1040
24.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8802
221.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0653
-10.15***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days