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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

67.53%

decreased by 2.78%

1 Week

67.31%

decreased by 3.00%

1 Month

66.65%

decreased by 3.66%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 168% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8109
21.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1035
24.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8807
222.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0649
-10.13***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days