S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
89.48%
decreased by 3.93%
1 Week
93.30%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
100.80%
increased by 7.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 5.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.1431 | 3.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7477 | 22.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0008 | 0.01 |
0.891
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1431 | 3.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7477 | 22.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0008 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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