S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
74.42%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
81.96%
increased by 7.28%
1 Month
95.76%
increased by 21.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 5.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.1439 | 3.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7467 | 22.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.0010 | 0.01 |
0.891
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1439 | 3.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7467 | 22.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0010 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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