CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
136.35%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Week
133.33%
decreased by 5.19%
1 Month
126.18%
decreased by 12.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 17.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2430 | 16.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7676 | 85.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2046 | -10.20*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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