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V-Lab

CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

136.35%

decreased by 2.17%

1 Week

133.33%

decreased by 5.19%

1 Month

126.18%

decreased by 12.34%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
17.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2430
16.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7676
85.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2046
-10.20***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days