V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
102.54%
decreased by 10.75%
1 Week
105.13%
decreased by 8.16%
1 Month
110.51%
decreased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 234% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 234% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4649 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.2618 | 5.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8829 | 32.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.1412 | 2.99*** |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4649 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2618 | 5.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8829 | 32.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1412 | 2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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